Be immersed quickly

I love being on the road, even if it’s a business trip, even if it involves three hours on a bus, single way. The fun part is talking with people. The amount of time he/she has spent on a specific field or with a company usually has a linear correlation with the depth of the understanding. People tend to have some cool insights about the things they know well. And that’s a very quick way to learn stuff, especially to gain an overview of a certain topic.

Progress

A few days ago, I was chatting with an auto analyst about the consumption characteristics of the 70s and 80s. To him, one thing truly tells the 80s apart is that we have such a strong desire to see ourselves constantly making progress. The progress can be promotion, salary increase, or progress in one’s life such as getting a new car or house, picking up a hobby, traveling to places that have never been to. The strong desire to move forward is an inner driver in his view. And this leads to different spending habits. I’ve never looked at myself in that way. But as he point out, I find this a valid point, at least applicable to myself and many of my friends.

SOE vs Private management team

Management team is one of the most crucial factor in any equity investment, whether startup or big public company. SOE mgt team are usually viewed as slow, low efficient, and most likely less knowledgable about their own business. Private management team, on the other hand, are typically responsive, moving quickly , grassroots alike and less restrained by standards. Yet when it comes to reliability, owners of China’s listed private companies tend to have less creditability. Suspicious moves like owners selling off their own shares easily get market tension. They have a higher risk of screwing up minority shareholders, taking all their money and running away. The reason that probably caused lower efficiency in SOE mgt team may have also given them less freedom (at least theoretically) to act wildly.

Nominal growth vs Listed company growth

US: country nominal growth less than S&P500’s revenue and profit growth (which makes more sense as listed companies are supposed to be better than other non-listed)
China: country nominal growth more than CSI300’s revenue and profit growth (There is a hole in the bucket of listed companies, profit flows outwards)

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两天见了五家上市地产公司的管理层，惊人的一致。

问：对市场怎么看？
答：短期会有调整，主要城市价格肯定会下来一点。这样统计数据出来就可以看出成效了。

问：长期有压力么？
答：没什么压力。现金很充沛。政策会企稳，房价还是会保持平稳上涨的。

问：保障性住房的建设能拉动上下游么？
答：太天真。

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Today on history:

1. 2006:  加了个新栏目:足迹(3)

二手房成交上升，吸收空置房。在远郊新房和市区次新房之间，后者占优，刚需市场回暖。
一线城市小投资客出手，转去二线城市，受益最大应是在二线有较多土储的开发商，和网点覆盖率高的中介。

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4 facts
- Globally, annual market size is around $38Bn in 2008, which constitutes of 50% business use and 50% leisure use.
- Pricing is the most decisive factor in competition. Therefore cost management is key to the biz.
- In US, majority of the business is airport related, meaning rental locations set at or adjacent to airports.
- Loyalty program generates high volume for biz, while speeds up the process of get a car, therefore win-win solution if well managed. Typically, loyalty program could generate 40% of total revenue.

4 questions
- Is airport model replicable in China?
- What is the bottleneck for car rental biz in China?
- What can car manufacturers and 2nd hand market do to earn a share in car rental biz?
- What can be done to improve customer retention, especially large corporate accounts?

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Due to feature of my current job, one of the key tasks I set for myself is to build up a comprehensive knowledge database, which hopefully could cover a full range of topics some day, from digital products distribution to tire manufacturing techniques. This is the fun and rewarding part of the job, and in the long run, it will also be the driver for my growth as experience matters in this function. Yet, as it takes time to accumulate knowledge, which means it may not be the most urgent thing to do, very often it loses the priority, like all the other things in the “important but not urgent” category, all of which require perseverance and patience.

That’s why I set up this category, which literally means nine-level tower, a kind of basil that I have planted in my balcony. Step by step, tower is conquerable. And, even if it is endless, as nine actually means countless in traditional Chinese, the higher I climb, the better view I have.

Preview – Topic #1. Car Rental Biz

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